In early , the CEO of the large chipmaker Nvidia agreed. Over the decades, some, including Moore himself at times, fretted that they could see the end in sight, as it got harder to make smaller and smaller transistors. For years the chip industry managed to evade these physical roadblocks. New transistor designs were introduced to better corral the electrons. New lithography methods using extreme ultraviolet radiation were invented when the wavelengths of visible light were too thick to precisely carve out silicon features of only a few tens of nanometers.
But progress grew ever more expensive. Likewise, the fabs that make the most advanced chips are becoming prohibitively pricey. Not coincidentally, the number of companies with plans to make the next generation of chips has now shrunk to only three, down from eight in and 25 in He leads a team of some 8, hardware engineers and chip designers at Intel. But Keller found ample technical opportunities for advances. It means there are many ways to keep doubling the number of devices on a chip—innovations such as 3D architectures and new transistor designs.
These days Keller sounds optimistic. Still, even if Intel and the other remaining chipmakers can squeeze out a few more generations of even more advanced microchips, the days when you could reliably count on faster, cheaper chips every couple of years are clearly over.
In a new paper, the two document ample room for improving computational performance through better software, algorithms, and specialized chip architecture. One opportunity is in slimming down so-called software bloat to wring the most out of existing chips.
And they often failed to take full advantage of changes in hardware architecture, such as the multiple cores, or processors, seen in chips used today. Thompson and his colleagues showed that they could get a computationally intensive calculation to run some 47 times faster just by switching from Python, a popular general-purpose programming language, to the more efficient C.
Further tailoring the code to take full advantage of a chip with 18 processing cores sped things up even more. The browser version you are using is not recommended for this site.
Please consider upgrading to the latest version of your browser by clicking one of the following links. In , Gordon Moore made a prediction that would set the pace for our modern digital revolution. From careful observation of an emerging trend, Moore extrapolated that computing would dramatically increase in power, and decrease in relative cost, at an exponential pace.
As a co-founder, Gordon paved the path for Intel to make the ever faster, smaller, more affordable transistors that drive our modern tools and toys. Even over 50 years later, the lasting impact and benefits are felt in many ways. Performance—aka power—and cost are two key drivers of technological development. The fact that Moore's Law may be approaching its natural death is perhaps most painfully present at the chip manufacturers themselves; as these companies are saddled with the task of building ever-more-powerful chips against the reality of physical odds.
Even Intel is competing with itself and its industry to create what ultimately may not be possible. In , with its nanometer nm processor, Intel was able to boast of having the world's smallest and most advanced transistors in a mass-produced product.
In , Intel launched an even smaller, more powerful 14nm chip; and today, the company is struggling to bring its 10nm chip to market. For perspective, one nanometer is one billionth of a meter, smaller than the wavelength of visible light. The diameter of an atom ranges from about 0. The vision of an endlessly empowered and interconnected future brings both challenges and benefits.
Shrinking transistors have powered advances in computing for more than half a century, but soon engineers and scientists must find other ways to make computers more capable.
Instead of physical processes, applications and software may help improve the speed and efficiency of computers. Cloud computing, wireless communication, the Internet of Things IoT , and quantum physics all may play a role in the future of computer tech innovation.
Despite the growing concerns around privacy and security, the advantages of ever-smarter computing technology can help keep us healthier, safer, and more productive in the long run.
In , George Moore posited that roughly every two years, the number of transistors on microchips will double. What this means specifically, is that transistors in integrated circuits have become faster. Transistors conduct electricity, which contain carbon and silicon molecules that can make the electricity run faster across the circuit. The faster the integrated circuit conducts electricity, the faster the computer operates. What this means is that computers are projected to reach their limits because transistors will be unable to operate within smaller circuits at increasingly higher temperatures.
This is due to the fact that cooling the transistors will require more energy than the energy that passes through the transistor itself. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Accessed August 20, MIT Technology Review.
IEEE Spectrum. Moore, National Nanotechnology Initiative. Company Profiles. Actively scan device characteristics for identification. Use precise geolocation data. Select personalised content. Create a personalised content profile. Measure ad performance. Select basic ads. Create a personalised ads profile. Select personalised ads.
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